Historic shift: Republicans outnumber Democrats for first time

Listen To Story Above

In a significant shift from historical patterns, the 2024 election saw Republicans outnumbering Democrats in voter turnout, marking the first time this has occurred since the New Deal era of the 1930s.

According to analysis from Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini on his Substack page, The Intersection, the margin between parties showed Republicans leading by 5 points in the AP VoteCast Survey and 4 points in network exit polls.

Attention Pollsters — America now has more Republicans than Democrats.https://t.co/TMqucebrzZ pic.twitter.com/lSQrAnHszj

— Tony Seruga (@TonySeruga) December 31, 2024

This represents a dramatic reversal from previous decades. The only comparable periods were during the 1994 “Republican Revolution” and shortly after the September 11 attacks, when party identification reached rough parity.

Prior to Ronald Reagan’s presidency in the 1980s, Democrats maintained a substantial lead in party identification, sometimes reaching a 2-to-1 advantage during the 1960s and 1970s. Despite Reagan’s transformative 1984 landslide victory and Richard Nixon’s 23-point win in 1972, the Democratic identification advantage persisted until recently.

The 2020 election marked the beginning of this shift, showing approximately equal turnout between the parties. Ruffini suggests that future elections may maintain a roughly 50-50 split, with party identification fluctuating based on each party’s relative success.

The current trend could prove lasting due to increased polarization. Ruffini notes that split-ticket voting, where Democrats support their party locally while backing Republicans federally, is becoming increasingly rare.

President-elect Trump’s appeal as a “cultural icon” has attracted unprecedented support from young and minority voters, potentially making him as influential for Republican realignment as Reagan was in his era.

The New Deal is Finally Dead: America now has more Republicans than Democrats. pic.twitter.com/fTzueHAc7h

— Truth Detector (@TruthDetector51) December 31, 2024

While the Republican surge can be partially attributed to dissatisfaction with the Biden administration, evidence suggests a deeper shift in the partisan baseline. Voter registration data throughout Biden’s term shows consistent movement toward Republican affiliation.

The 2024 election demonstrated particularly strong Republican turnout, with Trump’s strongest counties from 2020 showing approximately 10% higher participation than Biden’s best-performing areas. Analysis of party registration states reveals a 2-3 point Republican advantage compared to 2020 models.

Party identification has proven to be a reliable predictor of electoral outcomes, as demonstrated in both 2020 and 2024, when Trump’s performance aligned closely with overall Republican margins. This new Republican advantage in party identification could signal a lasting transformation in American electoral politics.